Document Type : Original Article
Extended Abstract
1. Introduction
Natural disasters are unfortunate events that have significant human and financial consequences for living beings. The occurrence of events such as floods, earthquakes, storms, and tornadoes usually causes extensive damage to human settlements and threatens the lives of many residents. Statistics show that over the past decade, natural disasters have affected more than 224 million people and caused economic losses equivalent to 144 billion dollars. Cities and their residents are more vulnerable to natural disaster losses than other settlements. As the most complex human-made structures and the main centers of population and economic activities, cities have always been exposed to natural and man-made hazards. In particular, the location of cities and residential communities has been mainly carried out in areas that are geographically exposed to various natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, storms, and droughts. The city of Mosul, as one of the historical cities of Iraq, is a prominent example of dilapidated urban areas that have faced numerous challenges in recent years. In addition to the destruction caused by the war, the city faces problems such as a lack of infrastructure, poor urban management, and a decline in the quality of life. Due to physical deterioration, functional inefficiency, and lack of modern infrastructure, the dilapidated areas of Mosul are highly exposed to natural and man-made hazards. Therefore, increasing the resilience of these areas is essential to reduce vulnerability and improve the living conditions of residents. Accordingly, the present study seeks to identify and analyze the key factors affecting the level of resilience in the dilapidated areas of Mosul.
2. Materials and Methods
The research is applied in terms of its purpose and nature and descriptive-analytical in terms of its type, based on the futures research approach. The data collection method was a survey. The statistical sample was 20 urban experts and elites, including professors of Kirkuk University (5 people), master's and doctoral graduates in urban planning and urban development (9 people), and experts from the Mosul municipality (6 people). The Mic Mac software identifies the relationships between the main drivers and how they are affected and influence each other. The Mic Mac software is also designed to perform complex calculations of the cross-effect analysis matrix. The degree of correlation between variables (drivers) is measured with numbers between zero and three. The number zero means no effect, the number 1 means weak effect, the number 2 means medium effect, and the number 3 means high effect. The variables in the rows affect the variables in the columns; Thus, the variables in the rows are influential, and the variables in the columns are affected. By analyzing the dos and don'ts and identifying key factors, the relationships between the variables can also be examined, and a future scenario can be prepared. However, the basis of the Scenario Wizard software is based on cross-effect matrices. This matrix is used to extract expert opinions on the effect of the probability of a state of one descriptor on a state of another descriptor in the form of verbal.
expressions, and finally, by calculating the direct and indirect effects of the states on each other, compatible scenarios for the system under study are extracted. The driving forces are determined according to the opinion of the research elite, and after that, these factors are ranked based on the scale of importance and uncertainty, and the most essential components are identified and used to draw possible scenarios. It is very important to note that in the present study, an attempt has been made to reduce the number of key factors or drivers to the minimum necessary number, because a large number of drivers makes completing the interview form in the scenario development step much more difficult and time-consuming, and this reduces the accuracy of measurement or reliability of the research tool. Therefore, with due diligence in the theoretical foundations of the study, an attempt has been made to select key factors or drivers that, in addition to being approved by experts, are based on historical trends and also have sufficient theoretical support.
3. Results and Discussion
After analyzing the findings, it was concluded that the most key drivers affecting the resilience of the dilapidated fabric of Mosul are: V22 Access to financial resources, V18 Regeneration incentives, V23 Access to bank credit and insurance, V19 Damage severity, V4 Quality of urban infrastructure, V31 Resilience to climate change, V20 Ability to compensate for damage, V30 Optimal use of natural resources, V16 Institutional relationships, V1 Building resistance, V26 Vulnerability of personal property. In the continuation of the research process, based on the results of the Scenario Wizard software, the analysis of the interactions between key variables of resilience in the dilapidated fabric of Mosul led to the extraction of a set of strong and credible scenarios. These scenarios, relying on the degree of internal consistency and the logic of the mutual connections between the variables, outline the possible futures of urban resilience in three main situations: desirable, continuation of the current trend (static), and critical. Among the robust scenarios, three main patterns were identified: Favorable scenario: In this case, all key factors such as access to financial resources, development of banking and insurance services, modernization of urban infrastructure, increased building resilience, institutional coordination, and sustainable use of natural resources are in their best condition. As a result, urban resilience is increased, and the city gains a high ability to prevent, respond to, and recover from crises. Static scenario (continuation of the current trend): The current state of the city continues with minor changes and no tangible improvements. Financial resources remain limited, and reconstruction efforts are scattered and slow. In this case, resilience is maintained at a moderate level but will be vulnerable to severe crises. Critical scenario: In this situation, a sharp decrease in financial resources, institutional weakness, infrastructure deterioration, increased losses, and organizational incoherence lead to a severe weakening of resilience. The continuation of such conditions could have irreparable economic, social, and physical consequences for the dilapidated fabric of Mosul.
4. Conclusions
In conclusion, it can be concluded that the future of resilience in the dilapidated fabric of Mosul is highly dependent on improving financial, institutional, and technical infrastructure. If the current situation continues, the city will be exposed to crisis scenarios and a significant reduction in resilience. Moving towards the desired scenario is only possible through increasing financial access, improving institutional coordination, strengthening insurance and credit, and improving the physical safety of buildings. Therefore, the proposed policy path for the future is to focus on institutional strengthening, sustainable financial planning, and implementing comprehensive urban regeneration programs in order to prevent the system from moving towards a crisis future and achieve sustainable resilience in the dilapidated fabric of Mosul.
5. Acknowledgment & Funding
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not‑for‑profit sectors.
6. Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.